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Initially, the former US president appeared to adopt a firm stance regarding Ukraine. After issuing threats of "serious repercussions" during the summer should Vladimir Putin carried on hindering peace negotiations, Trump eventually introduced major penalties on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action substantially hindered Putin's ability to finance his military invasion in Ukraine.

Yet, with his latest detailed peace plan for the conflict, reportedly created by American and Russian officials without Ukrainian or EU input, he has clearly returned to his pro-Putin stance.

Rewarding Aggression

This initiative would in practice favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while placing Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Although strong statements that "The nation's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the proposal actually weaken that same sovereignty. What represents a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his business past, Trump continues to treat the situation in Ukraine as a mere land disagreement, implying handing Russia a section of Ukraine's land will please the president. But, Russia's military campaign is not simply about dominating a damaged swath of industrial-devastated territory in the Donbas region. It is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent goal to destroy it so it ceases to functions as an attractive standard for the Russia's population of the accountable governance that his increasing dictatorship withholds them.

Border Giveaways

While keeping in status the already divided regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would compel Ukraine to give up the entire Donetsk province. Beyond favoring Russia with land that its military have been failed to seize in exceeding a decade of fighting, this giveaway would leave Ukrainian military defenses critically compromised.

Donetsk is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established military defenses that are a key obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, giving Putin a open path to the capital in case he subsequently choose to restart the conflict.

Military Restrictions

Furthermore, in a step that would enable future fighting simpler for the Russian military, the plan would mandate Ukraine to cut the scale of its military from their current approximately 800,000 troops to a maximum of this lower number. Importantly, the initiative sets no such constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a gesture to Putin's campaign to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as Nazis, the proposal states: "All Nazi doctrine and actions must be rejected and forbidden." As if to underscore this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in three months" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump sets no requirement that Putin risk his dictatorship by allowing elections in Russia.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the initiative makes Russia pledge not to "invade neighboring countries" and to "incorporate in law its stance of non-violence towards European nations and Ukraine". But given that the Russian leadership has broken equivalent accords in the history – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to honor the nation's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia agreed to a truce and a return of captured areas in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – for what reason should the international community have confidence in this commitment on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international protection assurances. Although the proposal threatens a "strong unified armed reaction" should the Russian Federation restart its aggression, and includes that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the particulars range from vague to alarming. The plan would not only deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from deploying military personnel on Ukraine's soil, effectively preventing the security presence, likely led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Putin from rebuilding his reduced military, restocking, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would offer the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any later "serious, deliberate, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault endangering the stability and safety of the Western nations." That suggests a military response. But different from a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's primary protection against renewed invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would hinge on the dedication of Nato leaders, including Trump, to respond through arms to Putin's aggression, something they have {not